PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
August 17 79%-12.9ptLeader of 30 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$50.2K
Liquidity
$281.5K
High liquiditySpread
4.4 pt
Moderate spreadComments
150
7d Change
+73.3 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 1, 26, 2:33 AMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Qualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
