PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
August 22 97%-0.3ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$345.9K
Liquidity
$583.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 86.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
21
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 3:16 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
