KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alibaba 86.4%Leader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.4K
Liquidity
$7.9K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 2:01 PM UTCSep 28, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
KalshiTop Chinese AI Company this month
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Polymarket2nd largest company end of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Sep 28, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- December 31+1.9pt96%
- September 30+6.0pt94%
- October 31+1.4pt94%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $70.3K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.6pt96%
- Yes-0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.4M
- 24h Vol
- $41.5K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 15?
- 28°C+50.5pt63.2%
- 29°C-9.5pt36%
- 30°C-19.5pt0.9%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBeijing Guoan vs Pohang Steelers
- Beijing Guoan+4.0pt52.5%
- Tie-1.0pt24.8%
- Pohang Steelers-5.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $24.2K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+1.0pt91%
- Moonshot-1.1pt6%
- Z.ai+0.2pt2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- 8+42.0pt66.7%
- Greater than 8-47.5pt19.6%
- 7+8.6pt13.7%
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Taipei Mayor Election Winner
- New Taipei Mayor Election Winner
- Bangladesh vs China
- US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- Beijing Guoan vs. FC Pohang Steelers
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st?
- Kalshi prices Alibaba at 86% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st resolve?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st is scheduled to resolve on September 28, 2026.
- How is Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Sep 28, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.