Current implied probability
Z.ai 63.1%Leader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$670.7
Liquidity
$11.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
8.6 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+4.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 12:01 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.