KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alibaba 78%+3.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.5K
Liquidity
$17.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 2:01 PMSep 14, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETNext Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- October 31+2.3pt99%
- September 30+3.5pt95%
- September 15+0.5pt89%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.2pt68%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.6%
- Grok+0.4pt9.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.6M
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+21.5pt77%
- Moonshot-15.2pt13%
- Z.ai-7.0pt6%
+8 more outcomes
GEMINIBTC price on September 1
- $77,000 or above87.5%
- $77,250 or above74%
- $77,500 or above55%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.8K
- 24h Vol
- $36.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,95%
- October 31,-0.5pt90%
- October 15,-2.0pt68%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNext Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date?
- October 31+3.9pt99%
- September 30+11.7pt96%
- September 15+8.9pt86%
+7 more outcomes
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released on?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+): Text Arena Debut?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Chinese AI Company week of September 7th?
- Kalshi prices Alibaba at 78% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Top Chinese AI Company week of September 7th resolve?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 7th is scheduled to resolve on September 14, 2026.
- How is Top Chinese AI Company week of September 7th settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Sep 14, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.