KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2027 73%-2.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.8K
Liquidity
$124.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
28.0% / 32.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Apr 22, 26, 2:00 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenAI
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date · Before September 2027 99%
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.4pt97%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
- $234.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+10.0pt95%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,-1.0pt89%
- October 31,+7.0pt81%
- October 15,+42.5pt66%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.8pt68.6%
- Grok-1.8pt9.8%
- ChatGPT-2.5pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.1M
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani+2.0pt34%
- Pope Leo XIV-1.0pt17%
- Donald Trump+1.0pt14%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
GEMINIBMW Championship Winner
- Rory McIlroy16.3%
- Chris Gotterup9.3%
- Wyndham Clark8.4%
+30 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.9K
- 24h Vol
- $34K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will OpenAI release GPT-6??
- Kalshi prices Before 2027 at 73% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does When will OpenAI release GPT-6? resolve?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will OpenAI release GPT-6? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is When will OpenAI release GPT-6? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.