KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBefore 2027 61%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.2K
Liquidity
$25.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
61.0% / 63.0%
Spread
3.3%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 7:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 202761%
Also available on Manifold Markets
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date
1mo
0%
0%
0%
+22 more outcomes
Community forecast151 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$45.8K
24h Vol$510.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.