PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 31 88%+0.5ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$23.9K
Liquidity
$23.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
16
7d Change
-8.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 1, 26, 9:52 PMOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
- For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.4pt97%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
- $234.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+10.0pt95%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,-1.0pt89%
- October 31,+7.0pt81%
- October 15,+42.5pt66%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.8pt68.6%
- Grok-1.8pt9.8%
- ChatGPT-2.5pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.1M
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani+2.0pt34%
- Pope Leo XIV-1.0pt17%
- Donald Trump+1.0pt14%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
GEMINIBMW Championship Winner
- Rory McIlroy16.3%
- Chris Gotterup9.3%
- Wyndham Clark8.4%
+30 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.9K
- 24h Vol
- $34K
- Best AI this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- XRP price on August 31
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- New York Y vs Baltimore
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI’s Astra released by which date??
- Polymarket prices October 31 at 88% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does OpenAI’s Astra released by which date? resolve?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is OpenAI’s Astra released by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.