PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 18%-1.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.1K
Liquidity
$119.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.1% / 1.2%
Spread
9.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 30, 25, 12:29 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December18%
Compare venues· December
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 18% | — | $4.1K | $119.8K | 8 minutes ago | |
 Limitless100% match · auto | Low | 18% | — | $0 | $0 | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
OpenAI IPO by __?
5mo
18.1%
4.2%
1.6%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$63.8K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
- If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
- The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.1kJul 221d of dataJul 22
Related Markets
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$3.4KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 3%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$410.5No IPO by December 31, 2026: 82%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
$379.3OpenAI: 20%KALSHI
KALSHIWhat will be Anthropic’s GAAP net income on their audited 2026 Income Statement?
$344.2> $0: 51.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
$191.5Earbuds/Headphones: 17%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph
DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News
DeepMind CEO Says AGI Will Be Bigger Than Electricity or FireDecrypt
NVIDIA Nemotron AI Challenge Offers Lessons on Improving Model ReasoningBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
- If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
- The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.