PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 28, 2026, 7:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31 89%
December 31 89%Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$517.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
68.0% / 72.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Sep 23, 26, 11:54 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?
Manifold MarketsWill "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus.
- Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation.
- Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
- Claude Opus 5.5, released on September 22, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, re-release, reasoning or speed mode, or other variant of it will not qualify.
