Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 25, 4:26 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
KalshiClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.