KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
$4/MTok or below · —
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Stored price
$4/MTok or below 35%Market line of 4 lines
$4/MTok or below 35%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.1
Open interest
$7K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
$4/MTok or belowSpread
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Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingJun 4, 26, 1:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · $4/MTok or below
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
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KalshiWill "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Anthropic
- The market resolves based on the price listed of the Input Token Price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 on https://claude.com/pricing#api. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies. If no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.
Rules for each outcome
- $4/MTok or below
- If the Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $3/MTok or below
- If the Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $3 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $2/MTok or below
- If the Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $2 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $1/MTok or below
- If the Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $1 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
