Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast22.5h - 25h 19.7%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 7:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
