Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast18h - 20h 30.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 30, 26, 6:15 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
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Manifold MarketsDeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 4.8 model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 4.8.x variants count for the purpose of this market. 4.7 or earlier would not count.
- Opus 5 or later would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
