Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast32-64 Hours 43.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 20, 25, 1:36 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 1:33 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.
- If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A. Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.