Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast9h - 10h 17%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
54
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 12:39 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 12:37 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
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Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped.
- So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
