Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 3:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastOther 76.3%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
43
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 26, 1:04 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 5 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Opus would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
