Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast4h - 5h 20.4%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 11:09 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first DeepSeek V4 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.
- V4 Pro variants (Preview, GA) count for the purpose of this market.
- V3 / R1 or earlier would not count.
- Later DeepSeek models would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
