Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 17.5%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 6:22 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for Grok 4.2 / Grok 4.20.
- If Grok 4.2 is never released, this market resolves N/A. If there is some coding- or other form of specialized version (e.g. Grok 4.20 Code), it will not count for the purpose if this market.
- A model expected to be called Grok 4.20 Heavy (using parallel test-time compute) would not count for this market, but Grok 4.20 Thinking, Grok 4.20 High, or Grok 4.20 xhigh, would all count for the purpose of this market.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
