What will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
14.0 pts (24h)ExchangeQuarterlyAIEntertainmentMusic3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
↓ $8 32%-14.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
↓ $8 32%-14.0ptMarket quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$181.9
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquiditySpread
40.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 8:36 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Sonnet 5.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released on?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5.5 by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Anthropic's latest Claude Sonnet model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet, such as Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Claude Sonnet 5, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page.
- If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies.
- Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify.
- The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge.
