PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
$5+ 96%+0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
$5+ 96%+0.1ptMarket quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$2.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 8:54 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5.5 by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model (5.1+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Sonnet" and be designated as version 5.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.1 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Claude Sonnet 5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Sonnet 6, while models whose name does not include "Sonnet" or which retain a version designation below 5.1, such as Claude Sonnet 5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public.
- An introductory price qualifies.
