Current community forecast
Yes 91.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Sep 27, 26, 11:57 AM UTCOct 16, 26, 7:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Anthropic makes a model officially named Claude Sonnet 5.5 (or any Claude Sonnet model with a higher version number, e.g. Sonnet 5.6 or Sonnet 6) generally available on or before October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific.
- Generally available means publicly usable by ordinary paying customers through at least one official channel: the Claude API, claude.ai, or an official cloud partner listing (Amazon Bedrock, Google Vertex AI).
- A partner-only preview, an early-access program, or a leaked model string does not count.
- Resolution source: Anthropic's release notes (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/release-notes/overview) or an announcement on https://www.anthropic.com/news.
- The release date is the date of the official announcement or release-notes entry.
- Resolves NO if no such release happens by the deadline.