Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 20, 26, 3:58 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+56.5pt74.1%
- September 23+6.8pt10.2%
- September 24+0.9pt5.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.3K
- 24h Vol
- $224.5K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $120.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.7%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $97.5K
- 24h Vol
- $74.8K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 62.2% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? resolve?
- Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria