PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 23 21%Leader of 16 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.5K
Liquidity
$22.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 10:24 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.7 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
- Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus.
- Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation.
- Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
- Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $471.2K
- 24h Vol
- $64.9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+0.5pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $67K
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $80.4K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Claude Opus released on??
- Polymarket prices September 23 at 21% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Next Claude Opus released on? resolve?
- Next Claude Opus released on? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Next Claude Opus released on? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.