KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 20.8% 54%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$11K
Liquidity
$10.5K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 21, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI share an official framework for disclosing misalignment incidents by the end of October 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
KalshiAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
If OpenAI scores above 20.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 14, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If OpenAI scores above 21.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $78.5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.6%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.3K
- 24h Vol
- $25.3K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI market share this week?
- Kalshi prices Above 20.8% at 54% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does OpenAI market share this week resolve?
- OpenAI market share this week is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is OpenAI market share this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI scores above 20.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.