KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 21, 2026, 2:59 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 21, 2026, 12:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Above 18%1%
Above 18.5%3%
Above 19%1%
Above 20.8%1%
Above 18%Lost
Above 18.5%Lost
Above 22.6%Lost
Above 19%Lost
Above 20.8%Lost
Above 21.8%Lost
Above 23%Lost
Above 23.3%Lost
Above 23.6%Lost
Above 24.1%Lost
Above 25%Lost
Above 26.1%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If OpenAI scores above 18% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 17, 2026.
- If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If OpenAI scores above 18.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.