Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2026-11-01 97%+2.7ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.4 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 2:57 PM UTCNov 11, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsRules
The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Opus 5.2 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.1, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2026-11-01 at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date resolve?
- Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2026.
- How is Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Opus 5.2 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.