KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Claude 89.7%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$27.9K
Liquidity
$24.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 21, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $78.5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-13.8pt77%
- 1540+0.9pt5%
+2 more outcomes
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Best AI this week?
- Kalshi prices Claude at 90% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Best AI this week resolve?
- Best AI this week is scheduled to resolve on September 21, 2026.
- How is Best AI this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Sep 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.