Current implied probability
Anthropic 87%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5K
Liquidity
$46.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
86.0% / 87.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 12:30 AMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic87%
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.