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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

1.0% (24h)AITechOne-Off3mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
1510
1510 80%-1.5%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

79 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$279.6

Liquidity

$12.9K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

38.0% / 39.0%

Spread

2.6%

Tight spread
7d Change

-2.0%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Apr 2, 26, 10:14 PMSep 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

151080%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text.
  • If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available.
  • If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
  • The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text.
  • If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available.
  • If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".