PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Anthropic 96%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$49.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
96.4% / 96.5%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
3
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 30, 26, 10:45 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Max (Anthropic, OpenAI annualized revenue) by end of 2027?
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Polymarketthird wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketLead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
- The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
- The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Anthropic is 94%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Anthropic 94% · 2 venues · 2 pt venue spread
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first??
- Polymarket prices Anthropic at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? resolve?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- Where else is Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Kalshi.