PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAnthropic 86%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$897.7
Liquidity
$23.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
85.0% / 86.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spread7d Change
+6.0%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 30, 26, 10:45 PMDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic86%
Compare venues· Anthropic
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
13y
+1.0%83%
20%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$314.3K
24h Vol$379.3
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
5mo
+2.3%85.3%
-2.3%14.7%
Community forecast71 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
- The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
- The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$898Jul 320d of dataJul 22
Related Markets
What will Anthropics Public Ticker be?
$402$ANTH: 57.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$336.2No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026]: 30%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Who IPOs first?
$252.2Anthropic: 82.4%
MYRIAD
MYRIADWhat Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?
$40.6June 2026: 0.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?
$27.3JPMorgan Chase: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
Which banks will take Anthropic public?
$1William Blair: 34%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
- This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
- The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
- The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.