KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityOpenAI 18%+2.0%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$79.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 21.0%
Spread
16.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Aug 6, 25, 11:30 PMJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
OpenAI18%
Compare venues· Anthropic
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
0.5%1y
89%
+0.0%11%
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$238.5K
24h Vol$205.7
POLYMARKET
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
5mo
+2.3%85.3%
-2.3%14.7%
Community forecast71 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.9kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Anthropic IPO by __?
$21.1KDecember 31,: 72%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$8.5KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$4.7KSpaceX: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$3.2K↑$1.1T: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
$2.3KDeepSeek: 8%KALSHI
KALSHIWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.