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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

12.0% (24h)AIOne-OffCorporate Actions13y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
OpenAI
OpenAI 18%-12.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$93.6

Liquidity

$859

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Aug 6, 25, 11:30 PMJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

OpenAI18%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

11.0%1y
Anthropic
Anthropic
+0.1%83%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.1%18%
88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$146.2K
24h Vol$11.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Manifold MarketsAlso available on Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6mo
Manifold Markets
OpenAI
15.3%
Manifold Markets
Anthropic
84.7%
Community forecast66 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$16K
24h Vol$583.5
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Rules

If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Related Markets

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

$2.1K
1.8T+: 48%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$1.6K
No IPO by June 30, 2026: 99%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

$1.6K
Yes: 45.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

$723.4
Before Aug 1, 2026: 3%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,685.50+1.86%EthereumETH$1,654.27+1.27%SolanaSOL$65.03+1.10%DogecoinDOGE$0.0847+1.07%BNBBNB$596.29+1.58%XRPXRP$1.11+0.03%

Related News

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Rules

If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.