KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Anthropic 91.3%+1.0ptVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$84.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 8.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 6, 25, 11:30 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who trades publicly first: OpenAI or Anthropic?
Manifold MarketsWhich months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Securities and Exchange CommissionNYSEthe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalBloombergBBCABCReutersCNBCFinancial Times
- If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Anthropic is 95%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Anthropic 95% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first??
- Kalshi prices Anthropic at 91% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? resolve?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket.