Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAnthropic 93.6%
Forecasters
80
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 6, 25, 10:24 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic, OpenAI and DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump’s executive order 14409 for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsRules
OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.
- Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven.
- Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO.
- Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO.
- If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic 95%
- Also available on Kalshi — Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? · Anthropic 92%
