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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Manifold Markets

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

AIOne-OffCorporate Actions6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
OpenAI 15.3%
Forecasters

66

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Dec 6, 25, 10:24 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

OpenAI15%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

11.0%1y
Anthropic
Anthropic
+0.1%83%
OpenAI
OpenAI
-0.1%18%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$146.2K
24h Vol$11.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

KalshiAlso available on Kalshi

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

12.0%13y
OpenAI
OpenAI
-12.0%18%
Anthropic
Anthropic
+11.0%83%
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.6K
24h Vol$93.4
KalshiKALSHI

Rules

OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.

Manifold Markets
  • Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven.
  • Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO.
  • Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO.
  • If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Related Markets

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

$32.1K
No IPO by December 31, 2026: 55%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO by __?

Anthropic IPO by __?

$25.6K
December 31,: 90%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?

$1.9K
June 2026: 1.7%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

$1.6K
Yes: 45.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

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Related News

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Rules

OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending.

Manifold Markets
  • Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven.
  • Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO.
  • Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO.
  • If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.