Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
0.5 pts (24h)ExchangeAITechOne-OffCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAnthropic + OpenAI 65%
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$3.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
56.0% / 74.0%
Spread
18.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
+23.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 19, 26, 8:30 PMJan 1, 27, 12:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic + OpenAI 65%
Rules
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
- NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
- If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027.
- If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
- If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
- If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.