Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 21, 26, 10:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 2% in December 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if either Anthropic or OpenAI publicly announces, releases, or makes available for purchase a standardized, consumer-facing subscription plan priced at exactly US$2,000 per month.
- The plan must be available for subscription at this specific price point at any time between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Anthropic (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels) or OpenAI (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels), or credible reporting from major technology news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Verge, TechCrunch) confirming the launch or availability of such a tier.
- Custom-quoted enterprise contracts, usage-based billing, or agreements that do not feature a standardized US$2,000/month subscription tier do not count toward a YES resolution.
- If no such standardized plan is introduced by either company by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026? resolve?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria