Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.4%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Apr 21, 26, 10:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if either Anthropic or OpenAI publicly announces, releases, or makes available for purchase a standardized, consumer-facing subscription plan priced at exactly US$2,000 per month.
- The plan must be available for subscription at this specific price point at any time between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Anthropic (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels) or OpenAI (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels), or credible reporting from major technology news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Verge, TechCrunch) confirming the launch or availability of such a tier.
- Custom-quoted enterprise contracts, usage-based billing, or agreements that do not feature a standardized US$2,000/month subscription tier do not count toward a YES resolution.
- If no such standardized plan is introduced by either company by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
