third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-OffTech9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 26, 4:58 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 4:55 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
work in progress, will we see substantial charitable giving from the EA’s due to the ai labs IPOing?
- could resolve to my opinion or some tens of billions donated within the first year after both labs have ipo’d.
- reference: https://open.substack.com/pub/nanransohoff/p/the-third-wave-of-american-philanthropy?r=2jhh1&utm_medium=ios
- Update 2026-05-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):
- New commitments/pledges that are hard to wiggle out of (not just actual grants) can count as evidence for YES resolution, or could at least contribute to a percentage resolution.
- Political donations may count if they are primarily directed towards candidates that are running on charitable causes (e.g., animal welfare, AI safety)
Open markets
Corporate Actions
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-3.0pt88%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,+1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $75K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.5pt59.6%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.4%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,47%
- June 30,+3.0pt40%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Warner Bros. Discovery+5.3pt100%
- iRobot+73.5pt100%
- Pizza Hut+4.0pt100%
+16 more outcomes
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- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO? resolve?
- third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: work in progress, will we see substantial charitable giving from the EA’s due to the ai labs IPOing?