Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 89.3% as of October 23, 2026.

When does Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

How is Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+0.5pt24%
• 202818%
• 202710%

Total Vol

$2.6M

24h Vol

$202.9K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-1.3pt87.9%
• Anthropic-1.0pt10.1%
• Moonshot+0.5pt1%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-8.0pt79%
• December 15,-9.5pt74%
• November 30,-23.0pt52%

+9 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+0.8pt49.8%
• Gemini-0.9pt38%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202792%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+3.0pt89%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.0pt27.7%
• $2.0–$2.25T+4.8pt22.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.8pt19.8%

+7 more outcomes

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• OpenAI market share this week
• DeepSeek market share this week
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?