Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffMiddle EastSportsChessElectionPolitics1y
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No government formed · —
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Stored reference
No government formed 50%Leader of 22 outcomes
No government formed 50%Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$94.6K
High liquidityOpen interest
$977.6
Bid / Ask
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No government formedSpread
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Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 30, 26, 12:53 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
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Market depth · No government formed
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Manifold MarketsHow long will the the Israeli government last after the upcoming elections?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Knesset election.
- The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence.
- A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister.
- Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
- A coalition does not need to hold a majority of seats in the Knesset; a government approved in a vote of confidence will qualify regardless of the number of seats held by its parties.
- Parties will be identified by the electoral lists on which they contested the 2026 Knesset election; any subsequent split, merger, or renaming of a list will be disregarded.
