How long will the the Israeli government last after the upcoming elections?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle EastSportsUS PoliticsChess3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast24-48 months 39.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 14, 26, 12:01 PM UTCSep 14, 30, 11:58 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market is of type INDEPENDENT_MULTIPLE_CHOICE with five fixed options representing the survival duration of the Israeli government formed after the next legislative elections (scheduled for October 27, 2026).
- Each option will resolve independently to YES or NO based on the official outcome.
- Upcoming Election: Refers to the 2026 Israeli legislative election (or any rescheduled date if postponed).
- Government Formed: Defined as a cabinet that successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset and is sworn into office.
- Government Dissolution: The tenure of the government ends on the day early elections are officially triggered (e.g., the Knesset passes a law to dissolve itself), a constructive vote of no confidence succeeds, or the government is otherwise officially dissolved or replaced.
- Interim/Caretaker Period: The duration of the government does not include any caretaker or interim period after the Knesset has dissolved or early elections have been officially triggered.