Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionChessUS PoliticsSports7d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
National + ACT + NZF · —
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Stored reference
National + ACT + NZF 52.3%Leader of 18 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
National + ACT + NZF 52.3%Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$305.5K
High liquidityOpen interest
$14K
Bid / Ask
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National + ACT + NZFSpread
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Comments
13
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 8:12 PM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · National + ACT + NZF
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
- A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
- Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
- The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF).
- All other parties will not be considered.
