Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
One-OffPoliticsElectionChessUS PoliticsSports1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
National + ACT + NZF 46.6%+1.5ptLeader of 18 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$198.1K
High liquiditySpread
1.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
8
7d Change
-1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 4, 26, 8:12 PM UTCNov 7, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
- A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
- Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
- The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF).
- All other parties will not be considered.