KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 67.5% 99%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$72.8K
Liquidity
$55.6K
High liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 5:00 PM UTCSep 15, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Open Source market share on Sep 16th
KalshiTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 14, 2026 is above 67.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards
- This event resolves using the Open Weights percentage in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart.
- At 10:00 AM ET on Sep 15, 2026, Kalshi will use the chart's updated value for Sep 14, 2026.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Vercel.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 14, 2026 is above 70%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $78.5K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.6%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.3K
- 24h Vol
- $25.3K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.4K
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-13.8pt77%
- 1540+0.9pt5%
+2 more outcomes
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Open Source market share on Sep 14th?
- Kalshi prices Above 67.5% at 99% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Open Source market share on Sep 14th resolve?
- Open Source market share on Sep 14th is scheduled to resolve on September 15, 2026.
- How is Open Source market share on Sep 14th settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Sep 14, 2026 is above 67.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.