Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast16 to 24 hours 94%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
67
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 15, 25, 1:27 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the highest METR 50% time horizon for any AI model released by August 31, 2026, closing after a two-month buffer period.
- Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- 50% time horizon is, roughly speaking, the time that skilled humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for more.
- As of August 2025, the longest 50% time horizon is GPT-5's 2h 17 min.
- [image]For reference, the buckets in this market correspond to doubling times of roughly:
