Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast>=24 hours 49.7%-6.2ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
60
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-6.2 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 15, 25, 1:27 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to the highest METR 50% time horizon for any AI model released by August 31, 2026, closing after a two-month buffer period.
- Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- 50% time horizon is, roughly speaking, the time that skilled humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for more.
- As of August 2025, the longest 50% time horizon is GPT-5's 2h 17 min.
- [image]For reference, the buckets in this market correspond to doubling times of roughly:
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR??
- Manifold Markets prices >=24 hours at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR? resolve?
- Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the highest METR 50% time horizon for any AI model released by August 31, 2026, closing after a two-month buffer period.