Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 9, 25, 4:56 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
METR 50% Time Horizon >100 hours by EoY?
Manifold MarketsBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on January 1, 2027:
- https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
- Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks