KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Event does not qualify (99%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 4:06 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Event does not qualify98%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Ukraine / Ukrainian1%
Arctic1%
China / Chinese1%
Tax1%
Nuclear1%
Lumber1%
Drone1%
Event does not qualifyWon
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Ukraine / UkrainianLost
Russia / RussianLost
NATOLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
ArcticLost
TariffLost
China / ChineseLost
TrumpLost
TaxLost
Rare Earth / MineralLost
HormuzLost
Iran / IranianLost
Manufacture / ManufacturingLost
NuclearLost
LumberLost
DroneLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- Important information: To be clear, this event will resolve based on Mark Carney’s official address during the General Debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 26, 2026.
- Remarks at press conferences, interviews, side events, bilateral meetings, or separate statements will not count.
- Markets may close and resolve after the address concludes and the outcomes are verified.
- How this is resolved Video of the the United Nations General Assembly using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the the United Nations General Assembly will be used.