KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Tariff · —
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Stored price
Tariff 81%Leader of 17 outcomes
Tariff 81%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$267
Open interest
$267
Low open interestBid / Ask
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TariffSpread
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Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Oct 13, 26, 6:30 PM UTCDec 2, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Tariff
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
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KalshiHow long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Mark Carney says Tariff as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 using the original broadcast, stream, or official video release by The New York Times. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Mark Carney speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Tariff
- If Mark Carney says Tariff as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ukraine / Ukrainian
- If Mark Carney says Ukraine / Ukrainian as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- USMCA / CUSMA
- If Mark Carney says USMCA / CUSMA as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- China / Chinese
- If Mark Carney says China / Chinese as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump (3+ times)
- If Mark Carney says Trump (3+ times) as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- If Mark Carney says Afford / Affordable / Affordability as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- If Mark Carney says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- If Mark Carney says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Pipeline
- If Mark Carney says Pipeline as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Defense / Defence
- If Mark Carney says Defense / Defence as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Rare Earth / Mineral
- If Mark Carney says Rare Earth / Mineral as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- NATO
- If Mark Carney says NATO as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Arctic
- If Mark Carney says Arctic as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Nuclear
- If Mark Carney says Nuclear as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lumber
- If Mark Carney says Lumber as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- 51st State
- If Mark Carney says 51st State as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.