Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastFull 4-year term or more 68%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 2, 25, 1:42 PM UTCOct 31, 29, 4:30 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
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Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to the option that accurately reflects the duration of Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government, measured from his swearing-in on March 14, 2025, until the end of his tenure as Prime Minister.
- The available options are:
- the named outcome
Open markets
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+48 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.5%
- Gavin Newsom14.4%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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- Delcy Rodríguez-25.0pt40.2%
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+13 more outcomes
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+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $472.8K
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+1 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last??
- Manifold Markets prices Full 4-year term or more at 68% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last? resolve?
- How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2029.
- How is How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: