KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jul 1, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jul 1, 2029 42.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Jul 1, 2029 42.5%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1
Open interest
$497.6
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jul 1, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Oct 10, 26, 7:45 PM UTCJul 1, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jul 1, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026?
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KalshiNarendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?
KalshiSanae Takaichi announces departure as Prime Minister of Japan?
KalshiWho will be Prime Minister of Canada after Mark Carney?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiRules
If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Mark CarneyThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersOffice of the Prime Minister of CanadaCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that Mark Carney will not lead the Liberal Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election, for example once a new Liberal leader is chosen. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jul 1, 2029
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2028
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Mark Carney leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of Canada before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
