KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2029 88%Leader of 11 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2029 88%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Open interest
$468.6K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 6:00 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiRules
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pete HegsethThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersU.S. Department of WarDepartment of DefenseCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2028
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Feb 1, 2027
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.