KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Dec 1, 2026 23%-4.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7K
Liquidity
$426.5K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 5:00 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
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KalshiPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiPete Hegseth's War Thunder account revealed before midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pete HegsethThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersDepartment of DefenseCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense??
- Kalshi prices Before Dec 1, 2026 at 23% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? resolve?
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.