Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast11.59pm January 2 2029 74.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 26, 8:36 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
KalshiWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsRules
He must have officially left the position, an announcement of a date to depart/resign does not resolve the market yes.
- All times in eastern time
- Out means, cessation of holding the role, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure