PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 88.1%+1.0pt
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$90
Liquidity
$9.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:29 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth leave office in 2026?
PredictItRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31??
- Polymarket prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? resolve?
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Polymarket.