PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 6:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? · Before Jan 1, 2029 94%