Will Mark Carney remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-Off2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Yes 90%
Yes 90%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$822.9
Low liquidityTraders
7
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0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether Mark Carney will remain in office as Prime Minister of Canada through December 31, 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Canadian government announcements confirming the prime ministership.
- If Mark Carney officially remains Prime Minister through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If he resigns, is replaced, or otherwise ceases to hold office before that date, the market will resolve to "No" at the moment of official confirmation.
- If official records are unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major Canadian or international news organizations.