KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Diesel (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Oil / Gas / Gasoline51%
Diesel48%
Canada / Canadian60%
Trump (3+ times)25%
Russia / Russian / Putin1%
Manufacturing57%
Obama35%
Iran / Iranian54%
China / Chinese28%
Healthcare24%
SpaceX / Elon12%
Nuclear41%
Tariff60%
AI / Artificial Intelligence25%
Event does not qualify1%
DieselWon
Canada / CanadianLost
ManufacturingLost
Iran / IranianLost
Before close: 96% ·
TariffLost
Before close: 99% ·
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
Russia / Russian / PutinLost
ObamaLost
China / ChineseLost
HealthcareLost
Before close: 5% ·
SpaceX / ElonLost
NuclearLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Before close: 1% ·
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KalshiRules
If Mike Rogers says Diesel as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Mike Rogers speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Diesel
- If Mike Rogers says Diesel as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Canada / Canadian
- If Mike Rogers says Canada / Canadian as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Manufacturing
- If Mike Rogers says Manufacturing as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Iran / Iranian
- If Mike Rogers says Iran / Iranian as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tariff
- If Mike Rogers says Tariff as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- If Mike Rogers says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump (3+ times)
- If Mike Rogers says Trump (3+ times) as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Russia / Russian / Putin
- If Mike Rogers says Russia / Russian / Putin as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obama
- If Mike Rogers says Obama as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- China / Chinese
- If Mike Rogers says China / Chinese as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Healthcare
- If Mike Rogers says Healthcare as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- SpaceX / Elon
- If Mike Rogers says SpaceX / Elon as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Nuclear
- If Mike Rogers says Nuclear as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- If Mike Rogers says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of Meet the Press originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.